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                                最新就业数据对利率的影响

                                Katia Dmitirieva, 彭博社 2019年04月10日

                                失业率接近历史新低,对于消费支出来说是利好消息。

                                今年3月,美国就业率反弹幅度超出预期,而且2月的数字也比初报值更加喜人。对于担心经济降温的人来说,这一现象倒是能够带来一些安慰。薪资增幅有所放缓,失业率达到了近49年来的新低。

                                美国劳工?#21487;现?#20116;的报告显示,新增就业人数3.3万,新增岗位数19.6万。彭博社调查的新增岗位预期中值为17.7万,同时2月新增就业人数初报值为2万。国债收益率在此情况下依然出?#20013;?#24133;回落,但恢复至报告前水平。美国股票期货有所上涨。

                                失业率依然维持在3.8%的水平,然而平均时薪较去年增加了3.2%,低于所有预估值,?#19994;?#20110;扩张期间的最大涨幅。

                                虽然就业岗位增幅与去年相比较为温和,但该数据意味着劳工市场足够稳健,可在未来数月中支?#24535;?#27982;增长。失业率接近历史新低,对于消费支出来说是利好消息。然而,薪资增幅的减缓意味着通胀将更低,而美联储的决策者们则在观望美国经济是否能够经受住全球经济增速的放缓。

                                法国兴业银行的美国利率策略负责人苏巴德拉·拉贾帕在彭博电视采访中表示:“这篇报告对于美联储来说堪称完美,因为它?#23548;噬现?#23454;了他?#19988;恢?#20197;来所强调的内容:不存在薪资压力。”

                                就在这一数据出炉之际,投资者预?#24179;?#24180;的利率将在经历了2018年四连增之后出现下调。美联储在2019年年初取消了对短期加息的预测,同时强调经济风险将在全球经济增速放缓环境下不断增?#21360;?/p>

                                新增就业人数方面,教育和医疗服务行业以及职业和商业服务是首要贡献者。建筑行业新增就业人数1.6万,而制造业则?#20013;?#36208;弱,损失6000个工作岗位,是2017年中期以来的首次下降。从早期的其他数据来看,工厂就业率喜忧参半。

                                参与率(劳动年龄人口占劳动力的比例)从上个月的63.2%降至63%。尽管随着大龄工人的退休,该数?#32440;?#38754;临?#20013;?#30340;下行压力,但它在最近几个月中有所上升,原因在于雇主需求的增加让更多的美国人获得了工作。

                                新增工作岗位1月、2月的?#21916;?#20462;订后数据较此前报告增加了1.4万,然而前三月的平均值则从19.1万降至18万。

                                平均时薪较上月增长0.1%,低于预估值,上个月增幅为0.4%。周工作时长的增加可能也对薪资带来了影响:所有非农雇员的周工作平均时长从34.4小时增至34.5小时。周工作时长的增加可能会拉低平均时薪。

                                其他信息

                                U-6(又称就业不足率)为7.3%;其范围包括更愿意?#37038;?#20840;职工作的兼职员工以及想获得工作但并未积极寻找工作的人士。非农就业也出现了反弹,在上修2.8万个后增加了18.2万个;政府新增就业人数达到了1.4万。(财富中文网)

                                译者:Charlie

                                审校?#21512;?#26519;

                                U.S. hiring rebounded more than forecast in March and the prior month was stronger than first reported, potentially relieving some concerns about a cooling economy. Wage gains eased and the unemployment rate held near a 49-year low.

                                Payrolls rose 196,000 after a 33,000 advance, a Labor Department report showed last Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey saw an increase of 177,000 after an initially reported 20,000 gain in February. Treasury yields pared their gains briefly, but recovered to pre-report levels. U.S. stock futures advanced.

                                The jobless rate was unchanged at 3.8 percent, while average hourly earnings increased 3.2 percent from the prior year, below all estimates and down from the best pace of the expansion.

                                The data signal the labor market is solid enough to support economic growth in coming months even if job gains are moderating from last year’s pace. Unemployment near historic lows bodes well for consumer spending, though weaker wage gains suggest inflation will be even more muted as Fed policy makers wait to see how the U.S. economy weathers a global slowdown.

                                “This a perfect report for the Fed because it actually corroborates what they’ve been saying all along, which is there are no wage pressures,” Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale SA, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “There’s very little risk of wage inflation.”

                                The data come as investors expect an interest-rate cut this year after four hikes in 2018. The Fed early in 2019 removed projections for rate rises in the near term while flagging increasing economic risks amid slowing global growth.

                                Payroll gains were led by education and health services as well as professional and business services. Construction payrolls rebounded with a 16,000 gain while manufacturing continued to weaken with a loss of 6,000 jobs, the first decline since mid-2017. Other data had earlier shown a mixed picture for factory employment.

                                The participation rate, or share of working-age people in the labor force, decreased to 63 percent from 63.2 percent the prior month. The rate, which faces continued downward pressure as older workers retire, had ticked up in recent months as increased employer demand has pulled in more Americans.

                                Combined revisions for January and February added 14,000 more jobs than previously reported, though the three-month average decreased to 180,000 from 191,000.

                                Average hourly earnings rose 0.1 percent from the prior month, missing estimates, following a 0.4 percent gain. A longer workweek may also have had an impact on wages: The average for all private employees increased to 34.5 hours from 34.4 hours. A longer workweek tends to reduce average hourly pay.

                                Other Details

                                The U-6, or underemployment rate, held at 7.3 percent; the gauge includes part-time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want a job but aren’t actively looking. Private employment also rebounded to show a 182,000 gain after an upwardly revised 28,000 increase; government payrolls expanded by 14,000.

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